Stage III Rectal Cancer - 80% curable?

golfgirl10 · New User Joined: 29 Mar 2008 Posts: 2

Hello everyone,

My husband was recently diagnosed with stage III rectal cancer. The colon/rectal surgeon we consulted with recommended chemotherapy (5-FU continuous infusion) plus radiation (5 days per week) for six weeks followed by surgery and then six chemotherapy treatments with Folfox6. This surgeon is conducting a study where two of the Folfox6 treatments are given before surgery with the final four given after surgery. He told us that they are having an 80% success rate. He said giving the Folfox6 before surgery is allowing for additional tumor shrinkage thus giving better odds of no recurrence. I felt so much more hopeful after hearing this. Everything I have read on the internet and in books has a much lower success rate for stage III rectal cancer. I am now curious what other recently diagnosed colon and rectal patients have been told by their doctors as far as curability.

REB

I keep seeing 35% - 55% survival rates for Stage III. I am a little confused about that because my doctor has given me a higher survival rate. I am guessing this low rate takes in account all of those who choose to not do Chemo. These survival rates may go back many years, and as time goes by, I think survival rates are improving. I would like to see some survival rates for just Folfox treatments.

My doctor said without Chemo, there was a 50% chance of the cancer coming back in five years. Folfox dropped it to 15%-20% chance of it coming back. Adding Avastin dropped it down to like 10%-15%.

So does that give me a 85%-90% survival rate?

I had my tumor removed before chemo. I did not do radiation. My Pet scan showed no more tumors, so I seem to be doing it a little different from your husband.

My doctor has a lot of good things to say about Avastin. You should ask your husbands doctor about it. If I understand it right, Avastin keeps new blood vessels from forming. This starves individual cancer cells that are trying to attach and start a tumor.
_________________
10/01/07 - Removal of Stage III Colon Cancer Tumor and Temporary Colostomy
Started Chemotherapy 11-07-07 - FOLFOX regimen - 5-FU (5 Flurouracil) and leucovorin, oxaliplatin. Also Avastin
Last Chemo treatment 04-09-08, Colostomy Reversal 04-28-08 Age:41

brainman

I do not have any information about the survival rate for colorectal cancers so I cannot comment on that. What I can comment of is a detail that is often confused by doctors and patients communication... survival rate vs recurrence rate. I am not really sure which of those you are talking about but it would be a good question to ask your medical teams.

One other comment: Usually, either one of those is associated with some length of time: 50% survive more than x years, for example. It might seem obvious that the odds of surviving for 5 years is better than surviving for 10 years. However, this is not necessarily true. A lot of cancer do go into remission. Since each cancer is different, that length of time also differs. Most of the time, if a person lives longer than the 10% survival time, they can claim to be in remission... or at least that is the scale my medical team has used.
_________________
Jim
Site Administrator and long-term cancer survivor
1992 Astrocytoma grade 2, left motor strip
2005 Recurrence this time said to be an Oligodendoglioma grade 3, same location.
My Story Part 1: http://cancerforums.net/viewtopic.php?p=7350
My Story Part 2: http://cancerforums.net/viewtopic.php?t=8029
Blog http://jimhawkinsport.blogspot.com/

REB

If you think about it logically, survival rate should be the percentage of those who survive in relation of those who have/had cancer, verses those who die from cancer.

And reoccurrence would be the chance of it coming back.

So reoccurrence would be a different factor.

It seems to me the two would be tied together somehow, but I am not sure.

If I have, say an 80% chance of it reoccurring in five years, which means I have a 20% chance of the cancer coming back. That doesn’t mean 20% chance of dying from it. If this happens, I would still fight it and hopefully defeat it. It seams to me, my survival rate should be high, so I don’t understand the low survival rates of Stage III.

But say I die of cancer 20 -30 years from now. I guess that would put me in the percentage that did not survive cancer. If that is how they are calculating the survival rate, then I can see how it might be so low. It seems there is no time limit.

Now I know why I let my wife, an accountant, do all the math work around my house. Smile

_________________
10/01/07 - Removal of Stage III Colon Cancer Tumor and Temporary Colostomy
Started Chemotherapy 11-07-07 - FOLFOX regimen - 5-FU (5 Flurouracil) and leucovorin, oxaliplatin. Also Avastin
Last Chemo treatment 04-09-08, Colostomy Reversal 04-28-08 Age:41

brainman

REB, exactly my point Very Happy

.

I do think you may have misstated one thing: If your **recurrence** rate is 80% in 5 years, then your chance of it NOT recurring within 5 years would be 20%. That indeed does not mean the if it does recur, you will die. Within those years, so much new research will be done... so many new and better options will be available to you by then. I know this from my own experience. Back in 1992 when I was originally diagnosed, my oncologist and all the literature said the my prognosis was less the 10% chance of surviving more than 10 years. Since then those odds have dramatically changed. Newer studies show that the odds of surviving 10 years is more like 80%-90%.

I do still think that survival is time dependent. That is, the odds of me surviving another 10 years is much lower than in 1992. In fact, my prognosis is that I will have a second recurrence within the next 5 years. So, my "bucket list" takes that number into account Wink

.
_________________
Jim
Site Administrator and long-term cancer survivor
1992 Astrocytoma grade 2, left motor strip
2005 Recurrence this time said to be an Oligodendoglioma grade 3, same location.
My Story Part 1: http://cancerforums.net/viewtopic.php?p=7350
My Story Part 2: http://cancerforums.net/viewtopic.php?t=8029
Blog http://jimhawkinsport.blogspot.com/

bendamron

this is tricky, the percentage rates. i'm sure you've all heard it before, but the individual is one human soul which cannot be categorized and fit into a box of numbers. you as a person is unique, and there are so many personal factors that increase or decrease your chances. this is an individual fight, and if the fight is approached by the numbers alone, then you probably want to pack your bags and fight it at 80%. my wife has stage IV, the stats are 5% she'll live beyond 5 years. so does that mean she should give up, and give it her 5% because that's what the stats say, or does she fight like crazy because she's a non smoker, non drinker, a gym rat, and 30 years old and just starting to live her life? all you can do is try your damnedest, and believe in yourself, because there is no stat out there that crunches these two things into numbers. keeping fighting!!!!
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my wife (30 yrs old) diagnosed nov 10, 2007 with stage IV colon cancer with met to liver and lungs. current treatment of folfiri + 5fu + avastin, and weekly infusions of erbitux (cetuximab).
did not respond to folfox.

REB

Your wife need to fight it 100%. I am too.

Now if I was say 80 or 90 years old, my odds were low, and they only gave me a year or so to live, I don't know if I would go through chemo. Of course, I fell like crap right now from almost six months of chemo, and I never want to do it ever again. So its hard to say right now. But I know I wouldn't want to make myself sick from chemo just to extend my life a few months. I would rather enjoy what time I had left feeling as good as I possibly could. But being young, yes its worth fighting it 100%.

Anyway, we have to take this one day at a time and fight it the best way we can. I keep hoping that one day soon, they be able to cure cancer at the DNA level without having to do chemo.
_________________
10/01/07 - Removal of Stage III Colon Cancer Tumor and Temporary Colostomy
Started Chemotherapy 11-07-07 - FOLFOX regimen - 5-FU (5 Flurouracil) and leucovorin, oxaliplatin. Also Avastin
Last Chemo treatment 04-09-08, Colostomy Reversal 04-28-08 Age:41

DulcimerGal

Bendamron,
It is so shcoking that your wife is only 30. Please let her know I will be thinking and praying for her. I am still amazed at how many folks on here younger than I have this dreadful disease. (I am 5 Cool

. REB - you too - only 41, it is just amazing. Especially when we are otherwise very healthy people.

I also love to work out, eat healthy don't smoke or drink, love to run and kayak. We must fight.

I hope your wife is in good spirits and searching for the best treatment possible.

Take care - DulcimerGal

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